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Performance Prediction of Directed Energy Weapons

By Graham V. Weinberg
Progress In Electromagnetics Research M, Vol. 108, 79-88, 2022


Directed energy weapons provide a number of useful functions for the modern fighting force, and hence it is useful to produce a framework in which such a weapon's performance can be predicted. Towards this objective this paper introduces a new stochastic model to determine the number of targets defeated by a directed energy weapon over a given time interval. The key to this is to introduce a general queueing model, where arrivals are modelled by a renewal process, and the service time of a target being affected by the weapon is related to its probability of defeat. The queue is assumed to have an infinite capacity, and it is shown how the waiting time of detected threats can be modelled by an auxiliary delay process. A random variable counting the number of targets processed by the queue is then defined. Several functions constructed from this random variable will be investigated in order to identify a suitable metric for assessing performance. In order to facilitate this an example where a high energy laser is used for threat defeat is examined to investigate the utility of the identified performance metrics. As will become apparent, the modelling framework has considerable utility due to the fact that it can be used for performance prediction of any weapon system where an arrival process of threats and corresponding probability of defeat can be specified.


Graham V. Weinberg, "Performance Prediction of Directed Energy Weapons," Progress In Electromagnetics Research M, Vol. 108, 79-88, 2022.


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